Monthly Archives: August 2010

Carey: a postseason history

I did a shot-by-shot breakdown of Carey Price’s 2010 playoff performance and looked at his save percentage by every possible split. Working from the NHL play-by-play sheets, I was able to amass a lot of data about the shots he faced: situation, shooter, shot type, distance, and location on the ice. Below, you can see the variations in his save percentage from situation to situation.

I’m going to be taking a break from blogging for awhile to focus on some personal things, but my goal for 2010-2011 is to perform this type of tracking and classification for every single shot faced by Habs goalies. There’s just one thing missing from the NHL play-by-play sheets: shot trajectory. They don’t log the path a shot takes towards the net. So, from the logs alone, I have no visibility into whether a shot is going high glove side or low stick side or five hole or whatnot. To overcome that, I’ll chart each shot and then reconcile my numbers with the play-by-play data. A fun challenge!

Anyway, see you in the new season. Enjoy Carey’s 2010 playoff numbers for now:

Split Goals Saves Shots Save %
Even strength 6 51 57 0.895
on Power Play 1 0 1 0.000
Short Handed 1 14 15 0.933
vs. Defencemen 0 15 15 1.000
vs. Forwards 8 50 58 0.862
Shooter’s S%: <10%* 1 19 20 0.950
Shooter’s S%: 10% – 14%* 6 21 27 0.778
Shooter’s S%: >14%* 1 25 26 0.962
Backhand 1 5 6 0.833
Slap 0 14 14 1.000
Snap 1 8 9 0.889
Wrist 6 35 41 0.854
Other type 0 3 3 1.000
1 – 15 ft away 4 14 18 0.778
16 – 30 ft away 3 17 20 0.850
31 – 45 ft away 1 15 16 0.938
46 ft + away 0 19 19 1.000
from Slot 5 24 29 0.828
from Carey’s LEFT 1 21 22 0.955
from Carey’s RIGHT 2 18 20 0.900
Neutral zone 0 2 2 1.000
* note that these are regular season figures

Habs Coaches: second year blues

Quick Sunday post this evening.

A few weeks ago, I detailed how the Montreal Canadiens’ stunning playoff run deodorized what was an historically lackluster first regular season for coach Jacques Martin. Well, if history is anything to go by, regular season #2 could be even tougher for Martin.

Since the beginning of Toe Blake’s tenure, there has been an uncanny tendency for Habs teams to regress during a coach’s second full regular season leading the squad. Since 1955-1956, 9 coaches have started their Habs coaching tenure with at least two full regular seasons. Looking at their teams’ year-over-year performances in terms of three distinct metrics–changes in regulation winning %, team goals versus NHL average (GVA), and team goals allowed versus NHL average (GAVA)–it becomes readily apparent that success behind the Habs bench during a coach’s second regular season has been significantly harder to come by.

Red denotes a year over year decline in the relevant metric, and there’s a lot of red on that table. Indeed, only Scotty Bowman and Guy Carbonneau posted better numbers across the board in their second regular seasons as Habs bench bosses. That’s the bad news. The good news is that two coaches (Blake and Bowman) won Stanley Cups in their second seasons, while 3 more made it as least as far as the second round.

Blake: From 1st to 2nd in 6-team league (won Cup)
Ruel: From 1st in the East to 5th in the East (no playoffs)
Bowman: From 3rd in East to 1st in East (won Cup)
Berry: From 1st in the Adams to 2nd in the Adams (swept in Round 1)
Perron: Held steady at 2nd in the Adams (lost in Conference Finals)
Burns: From 1st in the Adams to 3rd in the Adams (eliminated in Round 2)
Demers: Held steady at 3rd in division (bounced in Round 1)
Vigneault: From 4th in Northeast to 5th in Northeast (no playoffs)
Carbonneau: From 4th in Northeast to 1st in Northeast (fell in Round 2)

So where will Martin fit into all this? Hopefully more like Carbo than Vigneault or more like Bowman than Berry.